Early voting opened Monday, Oct. 19, in a U.S. Senate race that has drawn more than $500 million in ad spending and polls as a dead heat between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico.

The contest for the seat being vacated by Sen. John Cornyn has two Katy-area residents heading to the polls with different priorities, according to Houston Public Media, which surveyed listeners about the issues shaping their votes.

Rebecca Trahan, a former professional athlete and Republican activist from Katy, said she is backing Paxton. But her top concern is closer to home.

"What I'm thinking about, especially as a single parent, is … about rising grocery bills," Trahan told Houston Public Media. She said she also worries about rising gas prices and paying her bills.

Trahan cited border security as another reason for supporting Paxton, saying she wants "some sort of a crackdown at the border" while still welcoming legal immigration.

Frederick Neill sees it differently. A researcher at Baylor College of Medicine who lives in unincorporated Katy, Neill said he voted Republican in every election dating back to the 1970s. He voted for Talarico in the Democratic primary.

Neill pointed to concerns about President Donald Trump's influence on the Republican Party. He said he wants to "toss them all out" and "get some more actual true conservatives in."

Polls show a dead heat

A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll released Oct. 18 showed Talarico at 48% among likely voters and Paxton at 46%, with a 2% margin of error. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Oct. 13 put Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 47%, within its 3.34-point margin of error, The Katy News reported.

Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, who coauthored the Hobby School report, said Talarico's performance is the strongest late-campaign showing he has seen from a Texas Democrat in decades, according to Houston Public Media.

The Hobby School poll found 6% of likely Republican voters plan to vote for Talarico. Independents favored Talarico 60% to 32%.

Democrats have not won a statewide Texas election since 1994.

Money and the race

Talarico raised $60.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared with Paxton's $10.2 million, according to Community Impact. Lone Star Liberty PAC, the main outside group supporting Paxton, raised $17.9 million in the same period, with top contributions from Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and the Senate Leadership Fund PAC.

At a Republican National Committee convention in Dallas on Sept. 13, Paxton outlined his "Protecting the Texas Promise" economic plan, saying he wants "every Texan to be able to buy a home, raise their family, and live a healthy life," CW39 reported.

Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff after an endorsement from Trump. Talarico won the Democratic nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, according to ABC13.

How to vote

Fort Bend County has 38 early voting locations open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Oct. 24 and Oct. 26-30, according to Community Impact. Harris County has 75 locations on the same schedule. Waller County has four locations open 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Oct. 19-23, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Oct. 24 and Oct. 26-30, and 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Oct. 25. Fort Bend and Harris county locations also have reduced hours Oct. 25.

Applications for a ballot by mail must be received by Oct. 23. Election Day is Nov. 3.