Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, the Associated Press called late Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The AP called the race at approximately 10:04 p.m., with Talarico leading with 59.4% of the vote, Houston Public Media reported. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and the first Democrat elected to a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1988, according to KCRA, citing AP.

Results remain unofficial until certified by the Texas Secretary of State.

Suburbs drove the outcome

The race hinged on fast-growing suburban counties, and Fort Bend County was among the battlegrounds analysts watched closely. Fort Bend voted for a Democratic Senate candidate in 2018 for the first time in 30 years and has repeated that pattern in every Senate contest since, the Texas Tribune reported.

Democrats needed strong turnout in urban counties and in purple, fast-growing suburban counties including Fort Bend, the Houston Chronicle reported. Party operatives attributed the suburban shift to a combination of growth, including millions of new residents arriving from out of state, and frustration among longer-term suburban Republicans as the GOP moved toward the MAGA wing, according to the Texas Tribune.

Covering Katy reported the Senate victory alongside Gov. Greg Abbott's concession to Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor's race.

Record turnout statewide

More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, in person or by mail, through the state's 12-day early voting period, the Texas Tribune reported. That amounted to 40.5% of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern-day Texas.

Texas entered the election with more than 19 million registered voters, a new state record, according to the Texas Secretary of State. In Harris County alone, more than 1 million people cast early ballots, far ahead of the 855,000 who voted early in 2018, the Houston Chronicle reported.

What's at stake

The race could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. Republicans held a 53-47 advantage going into the election. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, according to Fox 4.

More than $570 million in political advertising made this the most expensive Senate race in American history, according to the Dallas Morning News, citing ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

The candidates

Paxton, the three-term state attorney general, defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a May 2026 Republican primary runoff after receiving an endorsement from Trump. He has served as attorney general since 2015.

Talarico, a four-term state representative from the Austin suburbs, is a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. He led Paxton by a wide margin in fundraising for most of the year, though conservative super PACs offset that advantage with heavy spending in the campaign's final months, Houston Public Media reported.

Libertarian Ted Brown and several write-in candidates also appeared on the ballot.

Official results from the Texas Secretary of State will continue to be updated as counties report.